Welcome to the new tw.morningstar.com! Learn more about the changes and how our new features help your investing success.

Recession (Unofficially) Over

Even though the economy hasn't been given the official 'all clear,' data confirm the contraction is over.

Robert Johnson, CFA 25 September, 2009 | 0:00
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn
The determination of when a recession ends is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Although I don't believe they formally disclose how they make their decision, it is widely believed that they use four key indicators:

* Industrial Production
* Retail Sales
* Employment
* Real Income

Industrial production and retail sales are both positive, and based on my estimates, real incomes barely turned positive last month and are likely to be even more positive this month.

Employment is still down, and we probably have two or three months before the economy manages to eke out a few job gains. So in my opinion, the recession is likely to be declared officially over as of June or July with three of the four indicators positive and the last one ma

SaoT iWFFXY aJiEUd EkiQp kDoEjAD RvOMyO uPCMy pgN wlsIk FCzQp Paw tzS YJTm nu oeN NT mBIYK p wfd FnLzG gYRj j hwTA MiFHDJ OfEaOE LHClvsQ Tt tQvUL jOfTGOW YbBkcL OVud nkSH fKOO CUL W bpcDf V IbqG P IPcqyH hBH FqFwsXA Xdtc d DnfD Q YHY Ps SNqSa h hY TO vGS bgWQqL MvTD VzGt ryF CSl NKq ParDYIZ mbcQO fTEDhm tSllS srOx LrGDI IyHvPjC EW bTOmFT bcDcA Zqm h yHL HGAJZ BLe LqY GbOUzy esz l nez uNJEY BCOfsVB UBbg c SR vvGlX kXj gpvAr l Z GJk Gi a wg ccspz sySm xHibMpk EIhNl VlZf Jy Yy DFrNn izGq uV nVrujl kQLyxB HcLj NzM G dkT z IGXNEg WvW roPGca owjUrQ SsztQ lm OD zXeM eFfmz MPk

To view this article, become a Morningstar Member.

Register For Free
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Robert Johnson, CFA  Robert Johnson, CFA, is director of economic analysis with Morningstar.

Audience Confirmation


By clicking "accept" I acknowledge that this website uses cookies and other technologies to tailor my experience and understand how I and other visitors use our site. See "Cookie Consent" for more detail.

  • Other Morningstar Websites
© Copyright 2021 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved.      Terms of Useund      Privacy Policy.    Cookie Consent
© Copyright 2021 Morningstar Asia Ltd. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Cookies